Well, it's been a while since I've posted on this blog. My other blogs have stayed very busy, however a lot is happening.
BizLocal.com is now offering an online marketplace for Individual Business Owners to Sell their Business. Why? Great question! The economy has been returning at a pretty solid pace. Each week, businesses get stronger and stronger. Many business owners stuck it out through the hard times, trimmed some edges and did well, when they may have been considering retirement about 4 years ago. These business men and women did the unthinkable, rather than take retirement, and in the wake of a volatile economy, they stayed the course and are now seeing the sun on the horizon. No, the economy is not perfect, and it may never be perfect. However, it is back for many businesses!
Buyers have been seeking great businesses to buy into and small businesses that have come through this economic situation are like hardened steal. They've proven themselves in the hard times, how much better will the perform in a great economy?
We began development on this Business For Sale marketplace, as we found existing marketplaces lacking in clean simple page layouts, responsive design, reasonable feature sets for sellers and effective coding for web marketing of the businesses for sale.
We expect 2014 to be a stellar year!
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
Thursday, January 8, 2009
Investments of Interest
Ok, first of all, YOU must always do your own research.
I see several opportunities which are present and vary as to entry points.
Pay attention to the news, world events, advisors, etc.
Gold
gld
gss
cde
gfi
...Each have their plus and minuses but there is movement in this sector and entry/exit points reveal themselves regularly.
Fact. Each company you might consider investing in may, and often does, have hidden dangers as they struggle with cash flow, sales, investors, everything. Take a small mining company. The value of their product, payroll, insurance, basic operating expenses, pressure seems to come from everywhere.
So, while some of these stocks are low, and I am involved with them, I could wake up tomorrow and learn of surprise collapse and failure.
Take CC,
So, there are risks. I did good for a while with AIG, as well as FNM and FRE, but now are avoiding them.
Basically, most financial stocks seem completely uncertain at this moment and with the change in Presidency. That uncertainty could extend a few months into his term.
That said, AIG, FNM, and FRE may be positions which I will take in anticipation for a bump at about the day of the change of power. They will surely fall sometime afterward and become uncertain again for a while.
Ok, Gold mentioned a few stocks...
In the Oil industry, I like.
OIH
TDW
XOM
VLO
COP
But I am currently very positive about DTO and DXO, Double Long and Double Short, which were created earlier in 2008 and now appear to be good plays.
DTO had a high of about 160 a few weeks ago.
Hit about 110 and is, today alone up about 9.00 to 156!
An expensive stock, but here is the thing.
Oil Dropping, DTO Rising, and doing so by LEAPS.
Oil Rising, DXO Begins to Rise. Now there is a uniqueness and DXO is not currently rising with oil increases as fast as DTO drops with oil decreases.
But... Here is a point of interest, no matter what oil related ticker you want to play.
Oil is about 44
US announced a surprisingly greater reserve inventory than expected, about the same time that a, possibly brief seize fire occurred between
So, Oil Dropped, DTO Rose.
The expectation is for Oil to drop further, some targeting as low as 27 a barrel.
About 31 is the point that it seems too costly to pull the oil out of the ground.
Also Note.
US Government wants to add a new Gas tax to consumers at the pump.
They seem to believe that gas prices, now about 1.43/gallon are so low, that consumers are capable and willing to pay a higher price. Thus, we should add a new tax in there.
Basically, the Government is revealing the believe that consumers can and will pay more. This action will ultimately support investors drive the per barrel price UP.
A recent report also stated the UAE was considering taking on a new investor. Hmm, sounds like cash flow IS tight for them, and the INVESTOR, if one is taken in, will reap $$ when oil picks up.
UAE,
The point is.
While the price of oil may actually drop more, I'm looking for it to do just that, but I am also expecting it to go UP.
Reasons for UP...
Government reveals consumers can afford.
Becomes to cheap to pull out of the ground.
To me, the greater powers require that oil will go UP. Conservative average of $60 will allow economies to grow and flourish without hindrance by oil price. $75 is possible, but begins to hurt. $100 is also possible if greedy investors get involved. Don't want to see $100, but, it is possible.
Lets look at a couple things.
DXO, I would buy in, anywhere below $3, which it is now.
If it goes lower, I'll by more. Some target it to $1.60.
Buy and hold while oil is around $40 or lower.
When Oil hits $60, my conservative mark, DXO will be a gem in my portfolio.
XOM, COP, VLO.
In my humble opinion, 3rd grader look at them.
At any one moment in time, there are X number of barrels of oil, in transit, in storage, in refineries, owned, but not sold.
Those X number of barrels are worth X times $44
If prices rise, X times $60 means the company instantly has greater value and equity on the books and the stocks will rise accordingly.
So, I like DXO as well as XOM, COP, and VLO.
I also like BDCO(oil pipelines) which is pretty cheap right now and they have confirmed their pipes repaired and back on line since the major hurricane damage they sustained.
Hence, they will be back in operation and moving toward profits again.
I like BDCO, but as always, be careful.
There you have it.
Without addressing technicals, a 3rd grader look at a few of my interests.
-Scott
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
If Scott Leonard Were President....
If you read the previous post, you understand the location of the most dangerous Bubble to Americans, yet, unaddressed.
It is the cause of the Bubble and crisis the government is reacting to.
If I, Scott Leonard were President, here are some things I would do.
Not Bail Out Banks.
Not Bail Out Automakers.
Not Bail Out Any Organization (that I have considered to this moment).
I would place $$$$ (let's start with 800 billion or what every amount will do the following) in an account.
Utilize a department in FEMA to do the following.
Every Legal, US Citizen
and
Every US Business
May submit
ONE Mortgage
or
ONE Loan
Not to exceed
$ 300k
..To be paid, IN FULL by FEMA account, NOW.
----
The result.
A family with the relief of their mortgage or other loan removed, can also reduce their insurance requirements, and preserve their credit. With a loosened cash burden, global spending on the street can increase.
A business with the relief of their mortgage or other loan removed, can also reduce their insurance requirements, and preserve their credit. With a loosened cash burden, hiring and global spending can increase. Hiring adds more cash to families, further increasing spending on the streets.
STOP GAP
There will be a clause in the payoff of debt.
A recording made at the courthouse, and placed on credit report, which states this property or loan was paid off in full by the us government with a stipulation.
The stipulation is that the same property or item can not be mortgage or sold for 6 months or perhaps a Year.
Why? The forbidance of remortgage encourages Americans to find enjoyment in reduced debt, prevents them from getting back into the same situation again in the immediate future, and spurs economic growth from the streets, safely.
TAXES
This payoff is done Tax Free.
And. Every State or Federal Tax debt, non-filing, or other situation that Americans find themselves in, will be permanently forgiven effective today.
..Many people have, due to economic turmoil and cashflow, held back paying taxes, or as business owners, found themselves unable to pay certain taxes, and or stopped filing as well
Creating a boost to American pocket books only to hold them accountable to their tax failures which were also occuring would be counter productive.
We must admit that the economic failure effected payment of loans, mortgages, debts, and taxes.
I believe this plan, while simple, would releive burden in homes, loosed spending, increase jobs and hiring, and secure them from tax failures which happened during this horrible economic time, establishing a clean slate of a flourishing economy to move America forward.
It is the cause of the Bubble and crisis the government is reacting to.
If I, Scott Leonard were President, here are some things I would do.
Not Bail Out Banks.
Not Bail Out Automakers.
Not Bail Out Any Organization (that I have considered to this moment).
I would place $$$$ (let's start with 800 billion or what every amount will do the following) in an account.
Utilize a department in FEMA to do the following.
Every Legal, US Citizen
and
Every US Business
May submit
ONE Mortgage
or
ONE Loan
Not to exceed
$ 300k
..To be paid, IN FULL by FEMA account, NOW.
----
The result.
A family with the relief of their mortgage or other loan removed, can also reduce their insurance requirements, and preserve their credit. With a loosened cash burden, global spending on the street can increase.
A business with the relief of their mortgage or other loan removed, can also reduce their insurance requirements, and preserve their credit. With a loosened cash burden, hiring and global spending can increase. Hiring adds more cash to families, further increasing spending on the streets.
STOP GAP
There will be a clause in the payoff of debt.
A recording made at the courthouse, and placed on credit report, which states this property or loan was paid off in full by the us government with a stipulation.
The stipulation is that the same property or item can not be mortgage or sold for 6 months or perhaps a Year.
Why? The forbidance of remortgage encourages Americans to find enjoyment in reduced debt, prevents them from getting back into the same situation again in the immediate future, and spurs economic growth from the streets, safely.
TAXES
This payoff is done Tax Free.
And. Every State or Federal Tax debt, non-filing, or other situation that Americans find themselves in, will be permanently forgiven effective today.
..Many people have, due to economic turmoil and cashflow, held back paying taxes, or as business owners, found themselves unable to pay certain taxes, and or stopped filing as well
Creating a boost to American pocket books only to hold them accountable to their tax failures which were also occuring would be counter productive.
We must admit that the economic failure effected payment of loans, mortgages, debts, and taxes.
I believe this plan, while simple, would releive burden in homes, loosed spending, increase jobs and hiring, and secure them from tax failures which happened during this horrible economic time, establishing a clean slate of a flourishing economy to move America forward.
The Great American Economic Bubble
Ok, I want to knock this discussion out as I've spoken about it for years, to crowds and to friends, yet it has not been focused on and continues to be a great risk to the American economy.
Beginning in the mid 80's Japan saw an economic boom. Many of my peers believed that the Japanese had bought up many of the large commercial buildings and properties in America.
Perhaps the buying frenzy was over stated, but the boom was real and it appeared to be, in great part, backed by government overvaluated collatorization.
1990 began a trend that was eventually seen as a great bust. The Japanese Economic Bubble Burst! They effectively lost the next 10 years of economic and industrial forward movement as they struggeled with living through and surviving this horrible economic downturn.
In many ways, the following approximate 10 years bringing you to today, have also been a struggling period of very little advancements in their economic condition, hence since the Great Bust, they have lagged for almost 20 years and may finally be poised to begin making headlines in the world again.
Now for America. Wow! If you don't know there's limited cash in the homes of Americans, you're living under a rock!
The recent catastrophe which captures everyone's attention today is A Bubble, but not The Bubble which WILL set our economy on a path which may, like Japan, put us in a lagging mode to the worlds economy for 20 years. However, as This Bubble still remains hidden, the When remains the question.
On the Current Situation.
Yes, the economy as a whole in America is in very bad shape with most American facing extremely limited cashflow in the home.
This limited cashflow forces them to make decisions of what bills to pay, and as the money continues to shrink, they begin to stop making payments on their car, their home, insurance, etc., focusing on food and clothing.
Sounds extreme, but that's what is happening.
America woke up!, or atleast the government did when AIG, Fannie Mae and many banks threatened to fold. A crisis of gigantic proportion demanded the governemnt involve themselves in saving the economy.
False Focus. The government, and the world, viewed, and chose to focus on the corporate world which threatened failure. Throwing money to these corporations to save them seemed to be a quick fix but in reality is less than a bandade.
Point, after the government gave the money to the banks, corporation, and now the automobile manufacturers, those companies now exist for a few more months.
Pay attention, they reached this crisis of eminent failure as their income came to a screaching halt.
Income came to a screaching halt because the average American, being forced to make hard decisions, stopped making payments on mortgages, loans, and stopped making major purchases.
Average Americans made these decisions due to increasingly limited cashflow in the home.
Don't miss this.... If you bail out Company "A" with billions of dollars, allowing them to live for a few more months, on Monday Morning, the Average American is still unable to make those loan and mortgage payments, hence, the income and cashflow of Company "A" continues to diminish and the money received from the government eventually dries up, leaving them in the same place.
So, the bail out, as done in the Fall-Winter of 2008 by the US Government does not solve the problem or turn the economy around.
Meanwhile, during the last 3 months of 2008 with more and more people out of work, every month having basic food, water, and clothing needs but no income, credit scores of formerly rich people drops quickly and the average American not only has little or no cashflow in the home, but they have a credit score reflective of the conditions.
Jobs... if they get jobs, they will mostly be unable to borrow money again due to credit damage.
Now that the situation is stated, let me tell you of The Bubble which has yet to be seen or addressed.
The Bubble is the Debt or Loan Bubble.
What the world does not know, and even Americans are blind to....
In America, average rural town, every student in the high school must own their own car and it must not be an old car. In most cases, when they turn 16 they receive this car.
Now the Mother and the Father each have a car, a car payment, and full coverage insurance.
They work fulltime.
They borrow more money to buy their child a car. They now make another car payment and full coverage insurance.
Most people I know have several children, see the problem?
Also, if you pull up to the average home, you will see 3 to 4 cars, a boat or jet ski, a couple all terrain vehicles. In the home are atleast 3 laptops and two desktops, nintendos, playstations, wii, and every game imagineable.
4 Credit cards maxed out and a line of credit on the home.
Cable or sattellite tv, internet access, 4 or more cell phones, house insurance, car insurance on every vehicle.
Weekly gas bill of $300 to for everyone to drive to work and school.
Food, clothing... the list goes on!
And that's for the ones which established credit and borrowed on credit cards, cars, and homes.
A mother and father working full time do not earn enough money to stay on this road.
They got on this road by borrowing.
A mother and father which have ONE CAR, One Cell Phone and their child rides the public bus to school, with NO Cell Phone is considered poor. The student is shunned by others that enjoy these lavish pleasures.
Here it is... Look at an American family and on the Outside, we have the appearance of Success and Wealth. But on the inside, we are in Debt.
Just like the Japanese which had loans based on a false valued collatorization of the government, we are falsely valued. We look rich, but are in debt.
The bubble burst in Japan and reality struck.
In America A Bubble burst in the corporate world with limited cash comming in from the public to sustain these corporations, but... The Bubble still exists in the homes and for some, are deflating quickly.
Christmas and Birthdays are debt overload dates. Americans will use credit cards and savings to purchase things for friends and family in order to show their care, love, or consideration, further deepening the cycle.
In America, our homes Are a Bubble, ready to Burst.
Beginning in the mid 80's Japan saw an economic boom. Many of my peers believed that the Japanese had bought up many of the large commercial buildings and properties in America.
Perhaps the buying frenzy was over stated, but the boom was real and it appeared to be, in great part, backed by government overvaluated collatorization.
1990 began a trend that was eventually seen as a great bust. The Japanese Economic Bubble Burst! They effectively lost the next 10 years of economic and industrial forward movement as they struggeled with living through and surviving this horrible economic downturn.
In many ways, the following approximate 10 years bringing you to today, have also been a struggling period of very little advancements in their economic condition, hence since the Great Bust, they have lagged for almost 20 years and may finally be poised to begin making headlines in the world again.
Now for America. Wow! If you don't know there's limited cash in the homes of Americans, you're living under a rock!
The recent catastrophe which captures everyone's attention today is A Bubble, but not The Bubble which WILL set our economy on a path which may, like Japan, put us in a lagging mode to the worlds economy for 20 years. However, as This Bubble still remains hidden, the When remains the question.
On the Current Situation.
Yes, the economy as a whole in America is in very bad shape with most American facing extremely limited cashflow in the home.
This limited cashflow forces them to make decisions of what bills to pay, and as the money continues to shrink, they begin to stop making payments on their car, their home, insurance, etc., focusing on food and clothing.
Sounds extreme, but that's what is happening.
America woke up!, or atleast the government did when AIG, Fannie Mae and many banks threatened to fold. A crisis of gigantic proportion demanded the governemnt involve themselves in saving the economy.
False Focus. The government, and the world, viewed, and chose to focus on the corporate world which threatened failure. Throwing money to these corporations to save them seemed to be a quick fix but in reality is less than a bandade.
Point, after the government gave the money to the banks, corporation, and now the automobile manufacturers, those companies now exist for a few more months.
Pay attention, they reached this crisis of eminent failure as their income came to a screaching halt.
Income came to a screaching halt because the average American, being forced to make hard decisions, stopped making payments on mortgages, loans, and stopped making major purchases.
Average Americans made these decisions due to increasingly limited cashflow in the home.
Don't miss this.... If you bail out Company "A" with billions of dollars, allowing them to live for a few more months, on Monday Morning, the Average American is still unable to make those loan and mortgage payments, hence, the income and cashflow of Company "A" continues to diminish and the money received from the government eventually dries up, leaving them in the same place.
So, the bail out, as done in the Fall-Winter of 2008 by the US Government does not solve the problem or turn the economy around.
Meanwhile, during the last 3 months of 2008 with more and more people out of work, every month having basic food, water, and clothing needs but no income, credit scores of formerly rich people drops quickly and the average American not only has little or no cashflow in the home, but they have a credit score reflective of the conditions.
Jobs... if they get jobs, they will mostly be unable to borrow money again due to credit damage.
Now that the situation is stated, let me tell you of The Bubble which has yet to be seen or addressed.
The Bubble is the Debt or Loan Bubble.
What the world does not know, and even Americans are blind to....
In America, average rural town, every student in the high school must own their own car and it must not be an old car. In most cases, when they turn 16 they receive this car.
Now the Mother and the Father each have a car, a car payment, and full coverage insurance.
They work fulltime.
They borrow more money to buy their child a car. They now make another car payment and full coverage insurance.
Most people I know have several children, see the problem?
Also, if you pull up to the average home, you will see 3 to 4 cars, a boat or jet ski, a couple all terrain vehicles. In the home are atleast 3 laptops and two desktops, nintendos, playstations, wii, and every game imagineable.
4 Credit cards maxed out and a line of credit on the home.
Cable or sattellite tv, internet access, 4 or more cell phones, house insurance, car insurance on every vehicle.
Weekly gas bill of $300 to for everyone to drive to work and school.
Food, clothing... the list goes on!
And that's for the ones which established credit and borrowed on credit cards, cars, and homes.
A mother and father working full time do not earn enough money to stay on this road.
They got on this road by borrowing.
A mother and father which have ONE CAR, One Cell Phone and their child rides the public bus to school, with NO Cell Phone is considered poor. The student is shunned by others that enjoy these lavish pleasures.
Here it is... Look at an American family and on the Outside, we have the appearance of Success and Wealth. But on the inside, we are in Debt.
Just like the Japanese which had loans based on a false valued collatorization of the government, we are falsely valued. We look rich, but are in debt.
The bubble burst in Japan and reality struck.
In America A Bubble burst in the corporate world with limited cash comming in from the public to sustain these corporations, but... The Bubble still exists in the homes and for some, are deflating quickly.
Christmas and Birthdays are debt overload dates. Americans will use credit cards and savings to purchase things for friends and family in order to show their care, love, or consideration, further deepening the cycle.
In America, our homes Are a Bubble, ready to Burst.
Monday, December 8, 2008
2009 Turnaround
Since before the 911 disasters, i've watched a continual slide of business cashflow and economic conditions. Others thought I was crazy but I appeared to have my finger in businesses so sensitive they themselves were indicators. Now, the world confesses the economic conditions once covered up. Two weeks ago I sent a text to close friends. I see now, we are on bottom. There will be more closures and business failures but we are on bottom. Dig, scavenge, build... be in survival mode and build your foundation and base for the future. Expect 9 month survival mode.
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